Volatility Smoothing for Farmers

Alex Tiller - Friday, October 03, 2008

High commodity prices are a farmer’s dream – but they also can cause a lot of anxiety. Nobody minds a $300/acre input cost when wheat is $6/bushel – but what if wheat prices crash before harvest? The fertilizer and pesticides won’t magically, and retroactively, become cheaper. I recently saw a good article on how smart farmers can smooth things out a bit; here are some of the high points.

First off, spread out your sales of current inventory. Sure, if the price is high today, it’s tempting to sell the whole crop – but if the price goes up next week, you’ll spend the rest of the season kicking yourself. Sell 8 to 10 percent of your cash corn and soybeans each month. That smooths out your cash flow, and means that whether the market goes up or goes down, your average revenue will track the market. No huge wins, but no huge losses, either.

Second, know the history. In previous seasons, the best time to do new crop sell-aheads has been March through July. Put 5 to 10 percent of your new crop on the market in each of those months, and you’re likely to catch the best part of the price curve.

Third, assess your sales based on return on investment, not on prospective numbers. If you can sell bushels at a 50% return on your investment, you’ve done great – don’t sweat it if the price goes up $1 the next month. It could just as easily have gone down.

Fourth, if you’re using an advisory service, then follow their recommendations! That’s what you pay them for, after all. Don’t just listen when it jibes with what you want to hear. Sometimes sales decisions are hard to make for you, because you’re invested in them – listen to the analyst if you think he or she knows more than you do. (If you’re an expert, then never mind – but then, if you’re an expert, you don’t need my advice either!)

Checking Soil Compaction Levels on Your Farm

Alex Tiller - Wednesday, October 01, 2008

A lot of farms experienced heavy floods this spring, and are having heavy rainfall now thanks to the recent hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. This increased moisture level means that soil compaction is a bigger problem than ever. This is a good time of year to check your soil’s compaction level.

It’s easy to find out if your soil is compacted – all you need is a shovel and a couple of fingers. Dig a hole a foot deep or so, and feel around for dense soil layers. If the top layers are dense, that’s probably the result of compaction from rain. Dense layers farther down, up to eight inches or so, is probably compaction from repeatedly tilling to the same depth. The hole test can’t tell you if compaction has been caused by traffic in an area, however, because there’s no one specific dense soil layer that forms. You can spot compaction caused by traffic in areas where there is standing water, or where crops aren’t thriving the way they should.

Tillage is the primary way to break up compacted soil. If you decide to till in order to address a soil compaction issue, it’s critical to wait until the soil is dry. Soil needs to be dry enough to shatter for tillage to have its full effect. A standard till will be enough to take care of surface compaction, but if you have a subsurface compaction layer, you will need to use a chisel plow, and operate the plow’s points below the compaction layer. Heavy compaction from traffic will require ripping or subsoiling. However, ripper or chisel plowing done in moist soil is a complete waste of time – all you’ll do is cut a trench, leaving the compaction untouched.

You can avoid making your compaction problems worse by following a few simple guidelines. Most importantly, avoid working the fields when soil is wet. Dryer soils have much higher load-bearing strength – wet soils will compact like crazy when you take that heavy tractor out there. Wait a day or two and let soils dry after rain before you work a field. Keep you vehicle load weights as low as you can – obviously, heavier vehicles compact the soil more. If the axle load is approaching 10 tons, that will cause compaction down below the depth of tillage – try and avoid using machinery that heavy. Most of the compaction happens the first time a machine goes over a piece of ground, so control traffic of heavy machinery, and keep to the same track. When you’re in harvest mode, do your unloading off the field to keep traffic levels down. And of course, keep your soil quality high by leaving crop residue on the ground.

USDA is not COOL

Alex Tiller - Monday, September 29, 2008

I’ve long been an advocate for strong point-of-origin labeling requirements for produce. Not only do such labels help consumers to make the most informed choices when they select their fruits and vegetables at the grocery store, they also make it possible for the markets to more rationally handle food-safety crises like the recent salmonella scare – when we know the problem is Mexican peppers, then peppers with a bona-fide ‘Grown in Florida’ label don’t take an undeserved hit. Such requirements are also good for US farmers, because they make homegrown produce more attractive to the millions of consumers who would rather buy American.

I was pleased that the 2008 farm bill included country of origin labeling (COOL) requirements, but it looks like some big meat packers are going to skirt the rules, probably in an attempt to make it difficult for consumers to know where their meat actually came from. A USDA interpretation of the 2008 COOL requirements will allow packers to label a great deal of purely US beef as being “multi-country” in origin. The ruling, intended to make it easier on packers who are not set up to track their meat by country, means that consumers won’t be able to tell if the beef they’re buying actually is from the US or from overseas.

The National Farmer’s Union has asked the USDA to reinterpret the provision, which is scheduled to go into effect on October 1, 2008. At the moment, the COOL requirements are considered “educational” – packers have six months or so before the government will actually start enforcing things. Still, standards and practices have a way of accumulating momentum – if packers are allowed to ignore the country of origin labeling requirements in this fashion, it will be both practically and politically more difficult to get them to do things right once the standards have actual teeth. (Every parent knows the strength and persistence of the “but you used to let us do it that way!” argument.)

NFU president Tom Buis gets it right: “The law clearly states that products born, raised and slaughtered in the United States are to be labeled as a product of the United States. Despite this clear language, USDA’s rules will allow packers to label exclusively American products with those from other countries.”

Come on, USDA. You guys have been playing politics with this for six years. (The COOL requirements were in the 2002 farm bill, but never were implemented by regulators.) It’s time to give Americans fair and accurate labeling information on their food. It doesn’t cost more, it doesn’t put huge burdens on the packers and distributors, and it puts a spotlight on the quality and availability of US-grown produce and meat. Let’s do things right.

Fungal Diseases in Corn

Alex Tiller - Friday, September 26, 2008

Last week I touched on fungal diseases that can affect the soybean crop. Corn, too, has its share of fungal enemies. Corn fungus infections reduce the yield, damage the quality of the crop, and reduce its value as feed, so it’s well worth taking these infections very seriously. As you might expect, the wetter the season the bigger the potential for fungus problems – but some fungi do exceptionally well in dry conditions, so don’t assume you’re safe just because it’s been sunny lately. Damage to the kernels from birds or insects (who leave holes in the husk, allowing fungus to penetrate) also makes life easier for our fungal friends.

Aspergillus ear rot is a grayish-green powdery mold that starts at the tip of the ear and spreads along damage caused by insects. The infection can take root anytime from silking on, and isn’t stopped by dry conditions. Aspergillus produces aflatoxin, which is dangerous to people and livestock both. Elevators test corn for aflatoxin levels, and will reject bushels that exceed FDA limits.

Diplodia ear rot commonly hits in fields that are grown with reduced tillage, or that are continuously planted with corn. The fungus shows as a white or gray mold at the base of the ear and gros between kernels. Diplodia gets a big boost from wet weather within three weeks after silking, so watch for it then.

Fusarium is a kernel rot that shows up as white or pink streaks that look like stars, scattered over the entire ear. Fusarium gets its start at places where the ear is damaged from insects, and from kernel growth cracks. Fusarium produces fumonisin, a mycotoxin that is deadly to livestock and especially to horses. Fusarium gets a boost from warm, dry weather.

Gibberella begins at the tip of the ear and progresses down towards the butt. It is red or white, with pink being the most common shade observed. Gibberella produces both vomitoxin and zearalenone, both of which are harmful to livestock. Gibberella does best in cool, wet weather after silking, through the late summer months.

Penicillium, also known as “blue eye”, grows on and between kernels, particularly those damaged by worms, corn borers, or machinery. Corn stored with high moisture levels is particularly susceptible.

Trichoderma produces a green mold that grows on and between husks and kernels. Trichoderma gets its start through insect or mechanical damage. Trichoderma generally doesn’t do much damage on its own, but you should learn what it looks like so you won’t mistake it for the much more dangerous Aspergillus, which it sometimes resembles.

Managing these fungal pests can be quite a hassle. Many ear rot fungi can stay alive in the soil for years, so thoroughly scout fields that have had ear rot in recent years. Crop rotation, heavy tillage, and planting a mixture of hybrids are all good ways to minimize the impact of fungal infection on your crop.