High commodity prices are a farmer’s dream – but they also can cause a lot of anxiety. Nobody minds a $300/acre input cost when wheat is $6/bushel – but what if wheat prices crash before harvest? The fertilizer and pesticides won’t magically, and retroactively, become cheaper. I recently saw a good article on how smart farmers can smooth things out a bit; here are some of the high points.
First off, spread out your sales of current inventory. Sure, if the price is high today, it’s tempting to sell the whole crop – but if the price goes up next week, you’ll spend the rest of the season kicking yourself. Sell 8 to 10 percent of your cash corn and soybeans each month. That smooths out your cash flow, and means that whether the market goes up or goes down, your average revenue will track the market. No huge wins, but no huge losses, either.
Second, know the history. In previous seasons, the best time to do new crop sell-aheads has been March through July. Put 5 to 10 percent of your new crop on the market in each of those months, and you’re likely to catch the best part of the price curve.
Third, assess your sales based on return on investment, not on prospective numbers. If you can sell bushels at a 50% return on your investment, you’ve done great – don’t sweat it if the price goes up $1 the next month. It could just as easily have gone down.
Fourth, if you’re using an advisory service, then follow their recommendations! That’s what you pay them for, after all. Don’t just listen when it jibes with what you want to hear. Sometimes sales decisions are hard to make for you, because you’re invested in them – listen to the analyst if you think he or she knows more than you do. (If you’re an expert, then never mind – but then, if you’re an expert, you don’t need my advice either!)


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