Farmers are always on the lookout for better information about the weather – there’s nothing that has a greater impact on growing crops than what Mother Nature has in store each day. Weather trends, projections, and forecasts are one of the most important tools on a farmer’s belt. That’s why I was extremely pleased to discover StormWire, a news site that focuses not just on the weather, but on its impact on business and investment. Not everything on StormWire is farm-related, but there are a lot of great stories that are extremely relevant to farmers, as well as a wealth of material that is 100% agricultural in focus.

One recent story caught my eye; there have been high hopes for near-record corn harvests this year, but it looks like bad weather in Kansas is putting the kibosh on that. The latest federal projection is for the harvest to be 7% below last year’s level. These are still relatively high production levels, just not the record-setters that many of us had hoped for. The late rains are good for wheat farmers whose crops are still growing, however, and the wheat harvest is expected to get a boost.

I was about to embark on an epic research journey to find other great weather sites that would be helpful for my farm readers, but – this being the Internet – I was very pleased to discover that someone else had already done it for me. The good folks at IlliniWeather have built a fairly comprehensive index of agriculturally-oriented weather sites. There are great sites that aren’t on that list, but every site on that list is great. Happy forecasting!

The US Rice Producers Association (USRPA) has created a survey-based production estimate to produce statistics on the annual rice crop, citing fears that the USDA’s crop production estimates are inaccurate. Apparently a wide range of people in the rice market, from farmers to rice warehousers, are concerned that the USDA’s forecast are much too optimistic.

It hasn’t been a good year for rice farming. A series of hurricanes, a cold growing season, and heavy rains in the spring that delayed planting have all combined to push yields down, according to the folks out in the fields. The USDA projects that the rice crop will be more than 204 million hundredweights. Conducting extensive research and surveys of rice farmers, and drawing on the analytical talents of agricultural extension staffers in rice-growing states, USRPA forecasts a total crop of around 170 million hundredweights – a significant variance from the government figure. (34 million hundredweights difference, or 20% lower than USDA expectations) Rice industry figures are concerned that the government’s projection will push down prices, as futures markets expect a much larger crop than will actually materialize.

USRAPA predicts that there will be significant competition between the domestic market and export buyers later this year because of the reduced harvest. They also say they intend to work closely with the USDA to improve the government’s forecasts. Government statistics play a huge role in the agricultural marketplace, as futures traders, farmers, commodities buyers, investors, and others all rely on that data in making plans and pricing commodities. We will have better figures in a month or so, and that should give us an idea of whether USRPA’s critique is correct, or whether the USDA got it right.

So the thought of the day comes from a Chinese proverb that says, “Without rice, even the cleverest housewife cannot cook.”

I’m not sure yet if I’ll be able to attend this year’s DTN/Progressive Farmer agriculture summit in Chicago, but it looks like a terrific program. This is the second year that DTN has hosted this conference for farmers; this year’s program will be held at the Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile from December 7 to December 9. The title of the program this year is “Brave New Worlds: Your Map for Managing Ag Risk” and the main focus of the conference will be looking at the volatile commodity markets and helping farmers plan their strategy for 2009.

DTN chief executive Robert Gordon notes that “Today’s producers are faced with more market swings and agricultural policy changes than ever before,” and says that the summit will provide agriculture professionals information to meet these challenges. Events will include farmer panels, sessions on dealing with lenders and landlords, and panels on handling revenue risk, crop insurance, and the growing problem of input cost inflation. DTN has lined up an impressive group of speakers and event coordinators for the program, including Blairo Borges Maggi, the governor of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso and the largest soybean farmer in the world, Mark Palmquist, executive vice president of CHS, the nation’s largest grain and farm supply cooperative, former USDA undersecretary J.B. Penn (now the chief economist at Deere & Company), Allen Lash, president of AgriSolutions, and Mike Rahm, a vice president at Mosaic, among many others.

The registration fee for the summit is $445 ($395 before November 8) and includes food and program materials. Full information on the program and instructions on registration are available at the DTN website, http://www.dtnpf.com/promo/2008agsummit, or you can call them toll-free at 1-888-576-9881.

Every farmer knows that one of the most important elements in developing a farm’s productivity is monitoring soil quality. There is a lot that can be done to amend bad soil, and a lot that has to be done to keep good soil producing – but it all begins with knowing what the quality is to begin with. Otherwise you’re chasing black cats in the dark – a lot of exercise, but you’ll only get results by luck. Every farmer also knows that luck isn’t something to be relied on. Soil testing is the farmer’s tool that turns on the lights and makes it possible to get scientific about soil management. Here are some tips on testing your soil this year.

The best time to collect samples, obviously enough, is when the field is idle and you’re not frantically trying to bring in a harvest. Don’t try to squeeze testing in between other farm tasks; wait until you have some downtime. Late fall offers a pretty good window for many farmers, once the harvest is in. You should test no less often than every four years – more often if you’re pursuing an aggressive soil amendment strategy.

The most important element in taking your samples is the variability of your fields. A field that has been manure-spread or had banded fertilization is going to be a lot more variable than a field that’s only had broadcast fertilizer application. Geography and soil type changes across a field can also play into variability – so break down your land into sections that are as internally consistent as possible. If there used to be a fence on the property, use that fence line as one of your boundaries – odds are good that the historical use on each side of the fence varied, and so the soil won’t be the same. Each section should be no more than 20 acres. A map of your sections will be very helpful when you get out into the field to take the samples.

The number of cores to take in each section will depend on your estimation of the section’s internal variability. For manure or banded fertilizer areas, or sections that have inconsistent soil types, take 15 or 20 samples. In a more uniform section, you can get by with 10 to 15. Take your samples along diagonals, not in straight lines, and randomize your site selections to avoid getting too much of one area. Don’t take samples near gravel roads – contamination from the gravel can throw your results way off. Take cores six to seven inches deep, and make sure the soil is moist when you sample – if it’s too dry, some of the soil will come off your auger and you won’t be getting proper cores.

Put the cores from each section into a bucket, and break up the cores thoroughly. Don’t use a metal bucket – they will contaminate your sample with mineral micronutrients and give you worthless results. Mix the soil as well as you possibly can – you want absolute uniformity in each section’s sample. From the bucket, take about 1.5 cups of soil into a sample bag or box – and mark it so that you know which section it came from! (You might think you’ll remember, but if you’re like me, you won’t.)

Now you’ve got good samples from each section of your land, and you can send them off to the private lab or your local ag university’s test lab. Each lab will have its own soil information sheet, which you will need to fill in as accurately as possible – they use the information you provide about field history and your local geography to do the calculations for the recommendations they’ll make.

Soil testing is a science these days – if you give the lab boys a proper sample and the right information, the information they will return to you will be of great use in planning your soil amendment efforts into the future.