Biofuel and Food Price Update

Alex Tiller - Sunday, October 05, 2008

As I’ve discussed on this site several times before, there’s quite a controversy over how much biofuels have contributed to the historic run-up of food prices globally. A new UN report on food and agriculture indicates that biofuel production is responsible for about 15 percent of the rise in global food prices.

UN spokespeople have previously condemned biofuels in extremely aggressive language; one official called the use of farmland for fuel production a “crime against humanity”. Critics of biofuels alleged that the production of fuel from corn and other crops was responsible for 75 percent of the rise in food prices, a claim I disputed.

However, as experienced market analysts noted, the agricultural sector is an economically rational sector. High food prices and strong demand spur increases in output, and the demand for corn and other crops for biofuel production led, not to starvation, but to increased production of those crops. Food price rises are now slowing and reversing, according to food economists, as a result of increased production to meet strong demand. The world economic slowdown, while bad news overall, is also likely to push food prices back down from historic highs, particularly for staple crops like wheat.

Other analysts have pointed out that while food prices did rise, they did so at a considerably slower rate than other commodities. While it is natural for people facing high food prices to try and pin the blame for the situation, the simple fact is that biofuels represent only a small part of the problem, and one that will be fixed over time by market forces.

Volatility Smoothing for Farmers

Alex Tiller - Friday, October 03, 2008

High commodity prices are a farmer’s dream – but they also can cause a lot of anxiety. Nobody minds a $300/acre input cost when wheat is $6/bushel – but what if wheat prices crash before harvest? The fertilizer and pesticides won’t magically, and retroactively, become cheaper. I recently saw a good article on how smart farmers can smooth things out a bit; here are some of the high points.

First off, spread out your sales of current inventory. Sure, if the price is high today, it’s tempting to sell the whole crop – but if the price goes up next week, you’ll spend the rest of the season kicking yourself. Sell 8 to 10 percent of your cash corn and soybeans each month. That smooths out your cash flow, and means that whether the market goes up or goes down, your average revenue will track the market. No huge wins, but no huge losses, either.

Second, know the history. In previous seasons, the best time to do new crop sell-aheads has been March through July. Put 5 to 10 percent of your new crop on the market in each of those months, and you’re likely to catch the best part of the price curve.

Third, assess your sales based on return on investment, not on prospective numbers. If you can sell bushels at a 50% return on your investment, you’ve done great – don’t sweat it if the price goes up $1 the next month. It could just as easily have gone down.

Fourth, if you’re using an advisory service, then follow their recommendations! That’s what you pay them for, after all. Don’t just listen when it jibes with what you want to hear. Sometimes sales decisions are hard to make for you, because you’re invested in them – listen to the analyst if you think he or she knows more than you do. (If you’re an expert, then never mind – but then, if you’re an expert, you don’t need my advice either!)

Checking Soil Compaction Levels on Your Farm

Alex Tiller - Wednesday, October 01, 2008

A lot of farms experienced heavy floods this spring, and are having heavy rainfall now thanks to the recent hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. This increased moisture level means that soil compaction is a bigger problem than ever. This is a good time of year to check your soil’s compaction level.

It’s easy to find out if your soil is compacted – all you need is a shovel and a couple of fingers. Dig a hole a foot deep or so, and feel around for dense soil layers. If the top layers are dense, that’s probably the result of compaction from rain. Dense layers farther down, up to eight inches or so, is probably compaction from repeatedly tilling to the same depth. The hole test can’t tell you if compaction has been caused by traffic in an area, however, because there’s no one specific dense soil layer that forms. You can spot compaction caused by traffic in areas where there is standing water, or where crops aren’t thriving the way they should.

Tillage is the primary way to break up compacted soil. If you decide to till in order to address a soil compaction issue, it’s critical to wait until the soil is dry. Soil needs to be dry enough to shatter for tillage to have its full effect. A standard till will be enough to take care of surface compaction, but if you have a subsurface compaction layer, you will need to use a chisel plow, and operate the plow’s points below the compaction layer. Heavy compaction from traffic will require ripping or subsoiling. However, ripper or chisel plowing done in moist soil is a complete waste of time – all you’ll do is cut a trench, leaving the compaction untouched.

You can avoid making your compaction problems worse by following a few simple guidelines. Most importantly, avoid working the fields when soil is wet. Dryer soils have much higher load-bearing strength – wet soils will compact like crazy when you take that heavy tractor out there. Wait a day or two and let soils dry after rain before you work a field. Keep you vehicle load weights as low as you can – obviously, heavier vehicles compact the soil more. If the axle load is approaching 10 tons, that will cause compaction down below the depth of tillage – try and avoid using machinery that heavy. Most of the compaction happens the first time a machine goes over a piece of ground, so control traffic of heavy machinery, and keep to the same track. When you’re in harvest mode, do your unloading off the field to keep traffic levels down. And of course, keep your soil quality high by leaving crop residue on the ground.